We’ve been taught that success is a simple equation: Talent + Hard Work = Results.
Degrees. Dedication. Drive. That’s the path to the top… right?
But what if we’ve been overlooking the real X factor of success?
👉 Luck.
This isn’t just a hunch. It’s the conclusion of a provocative study that won the 2023 IG Nobel Prize in Economics—an award given to research that’s both brilliant and boldly ahead of its time.
🎲 Their mic-drop finding?
To reach the top, the winning formula isn’t extreme talent.
It’s moderate talent… and magnificent luck.
Not hyper-talented.
Not obsessively strategic.
Lucky.
The research challenges the meritocracy myth—the belief that success is purely the result of talent and effort. In reality, that story leaves out a powerful hidden variable: chance.
In a 40-year simulation of career success, researchers tracked 1,000 individuals exposed to random lucky and unlucky events. Here’s what they found:
- Talent is normally distributed. Most people are average, a few are gifted, and very few are off-the-charts brilliant.
- Success is not. It follows a power law—where a tiny sliver of people claim massively outsized rewards.
- The most successful individuals? Not the most talented. Just the luckiest—repeatedly in the right place at the right time.
- The top performer across 10,000 simulations had average talent, but a rare streak of extraordinary fortune.
- Meanwhile, many of the most talented individuals never had a chance to shine—bad luck blocked the path.
🤯 Let that sink in.
Talent helps you recognize opportunity.
But luck determines whether opportunity shows up at all.
And when it does knock—bold leaps become possible.
The averagely talented person who’s open, prepared, and willing to leap?
They ride the wave. They catch the break.
They turn chance into exponential momentum.
We pour resources into developing talent—education, coaching, performance reviews. But we rarely ask: What about our luck?
So here’s the Mavericks Question this week:
🎯 If luck is critical, why aren’t we training for it?
Next week, I’ll show you how. (Yes—luck can be trained.)
But for now, stop chasing perfection and start surfing possibility.
👇 DM me with the word LUCKY and I’ll send you the full, award-winning research.
Because if we’re playing this game of life and business… You deserve to know how the rules really work.